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Featured Commentaries Archive

  • Equities declined sharply during the third quarter on heightened fear of a global economic slowdown resulting from the ongoing European debt crisis and a gridlocked Washington’s inability to respond with meaningful domestic policy. The decline was broad based with most sectors losing more than 20% of their value, with the stocks of economically sensitive businesses being most affected as is typical with macroeconomic related corrections... Read full article.

  • The daily news seemed to drive market instability during the third quarter of 2011, which saw a continuing trend of increasing volatility. Central to this was Greece, with its rescue negotiations and potential default dominating the news. Swirling speculation as to which European sovereign may be next to slide into the debt abyss added to the frenzy. We believe these types of extreme events tend to cluster and to take on a momentum of their own, which our Dynamic Portfolio Optimization model attempts to anticipate... Read full article.

  • The third quarter proved to be a very challenging period as markets experienced sharp dislocations and elevated levels of volatility, resulting in exaggerated moves to the downside. In particular, the broader market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) dropped more than 13%, while the Fund declined significantly less as it outperformed its HFRX Equity Hedge Index benchmark. As an asset allocation solution for alternative strategies in a liquid format, the Fund aims to provide diversified returns with less volatility than conventional markets. It was able to do just that during the third quarter... Read full article.

  • It was a tough third quarter of 2011 for the Fund, which lagged its S&P Midcap 400 Index benchmark by more than three percentage points in delivering double-digit losses. U.S. equity markets were extremely volatile during the period, making it a difficult environment for fundamental stock pickers. The bulk of the negative absolute returns in the market, and the portfolio, occurred during a 30-day period from July 8 to August 8. .. Read full article.

  • TGIF!
    For many people, this phrase means Thank God It’s Friday. For this quarter, it means Thank God It’s Finished. The third quarter of 2011 was quite challenging, with the Fund's Russell 1000 Value Index benchmark posting its fourth worst quarter since Herndon Capital Management began running its large-cap strategy in July 2002. We have persevered since that time by being steadfast in our approach, though it was, as previously stated, quite challenging.
    .. Read full article.

  • The U.S. equity market declined sharply over the course of the third quarter. In July, fears that deadlock in Washington D.C. would result in a debt default or credit downgrade pressured the market. Despite the last minute deal that averted a technical default, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the rating on U.S. sovereign debt... Read full article.

  • The best thing we can say about the third quarter is that it is over. In our second quarter letter we warned that a downshifting in economic growth, the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing bond purchases (QE2) and uncertainty about the outcome of this summer’s political showdown regarding the U.S. debt ceiling could result in choppier markets in the period ahead. .. Read full article.

  • The Fund's strategy of focusing on dividend-paying companies and using call and index put options to hedge the portfolio aided in dampening downside volatility amid a volatile market environment during the third quarter. The Fund declined significantly less than the overall market (as measured by the S&P 500 Index), besting it by more than 10 percentage points... Read full article.

  • Market: Worst Quarter Since 2008
    Equity markets entered the third quarter of 2011 positive for the year and on pace for an above average annualized equity return. The period closed with the worst three-month performance since the end of 2008 and the “Great Recession”, as the market’s sell-off approached bear-market territory. The reasons were varied but carried a similar theme of global economic malaise and debt, beginning with the U.S. economy slowing and Congress taking the country to the brink of default over the debt ceiling. .. Read full article.

  • The third quarter delivered the worst market returns (as measured by the broad market S&P 500 Index) since the first quarter of 2009, and the Fund’s worst returns since the fourth quarter of 2008. Volatility and correlations spiked as the European debt crisis was front and center, but Washington’s inability to come to a final compromise regarding the debt ceiling—leading to the downgrade of the U.S. debt rating—also didn’t help. .. Read full article.

  • The third quarter delivered the worst market returns (as measured by the broad market S&P 500 Index) since the first quarter of 2009, and the Fund’s worst quarterly returns since its inception, eclipsing even the third quarter of 1998. Volatility and correlations spiked as the European debt crisis was front and center, but Washington’s inability to come to a final compromise regarding the debt ceiling—leading to the downgrade of the U.S. debt rating—also didn’t help. .. Read full article.

  • Stocks Plunge as Macro Risks Intensify
    Equity markets plunged during the third quarter as investors reacted to a string of negative macroeconomic events beginning with the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington and the subsequent U.S. debt downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, followed by the deepening financial crisis in Europe and a general slowing of economic growth around the globe.
    .. Read full article.

  • Stocks Plunge as Macro Risks Intensify
    Equity markets plunged during the third quarter as investors reacted to a string of negative macroeconomic events beginning with the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington and the subsequent U.S. debt downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, followed by the deepening financial crisis in Europe and a general slowing of economic growth around the globe.
    .. Read full article.

  • Stocks Plunge as Macro Risks Intensify
    Equity markets plunged during the third quarter as investors reacted to a string of negative macroeconomic events, beginning with the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington and the subsequent U.S. debt downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, followed by the deepening financial crisis in Europe and a general slowing of economic growth around the globe... Read full article.

  • Stocks Plunge as Macro Risks Intensify
    Equity markets plunged during the third quarter as investors reacted to a string of negative macroeconomic events beginning with the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington and the subsequent U.S. debt downgrade by Standard & Poor’s, followed by the deepening financial crisis in Europe and a general slowing of economic growth around the globe.
    .. Read full article.

  • The U.S. economy continues to move ahead at a sustained but moderate pace. It is evident that even with unprecedented federal fiscal and monetary stimulus, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth much above 3% has been difficult to achieve during this recovery. Unfortunately, second quarter real GDP may have increased only 1.5% due to weaker than expected consumer spending. In addition, while inflation remains generally well contained, higher energy and food prices have caused us to increase our inflation forecast for a second time this year. We now expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase 3%, versus our previous revised forecast of 2%, up from a 1% forecast at the beginning of the year... Read full article.

  • The Fund outperformed its Russell 2000 Growth Index benchmark by more than three percentage points during the second quarter as the index posted a slight loss. Small-growth stocks continued their advance from the first quarter into April, but quickly cooled down in May and June as economic news soured. The Fund gained most of its ground over the index in April, and then was able to maintain its outperformance , even adding to it slightly, during the subsequent pullback... Read full article.

  • Stock market volatility colored the second quarter landscape with the end result being a slight decline in small-cap stocks and a neutral to positive swing for large-caps. Defensive sectors of the market rose, while cyclical areas experienced profit taking. Much of the economic news during the past three months reflected weakening conditions for growth... Read full article.

  • It was a volatile quarter for equity markets with stocks gyrating on robust earnings early in the period followed by weak economic data. Although management comments provided advance warning of a contraction in growth, the pivot point occurred on April 29 when the slowdown officially appeared in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers... Read full article.

  • The Fund significantly underperformed its MSCI EAFE & Emerging Markets Index benchmark during the second quarter. The major contributor to that underperformance was Fund’s overweight stake in the Energy sector, where companies suffered against the backdrop of falling oil prices and broad growth concerns. .. Read full article.

  • The optimism prevalent in the equity market earlier in the year waned during the second quarter. Concern that the economy would slip back into recession was exacerbated by credit market fears raised by the European sovereign debt crisis and politics being played with the U.S. government debt ceiling. Economic data showed a marked deceleration with employment growth in particular much lower than forecast and housing data weak as flawed foreclosure processes at loan servicers and regulatory delays have created a shadow inventory that overhangs the market... Read full article.

  • Equity markets gyrated back and forth within a large trading range during the second quarter of 2011, with the S&P 500 Index moving up and down in covering 100 points. What was surprising, and frustrating for us, was the narrow range of the Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (“VIX”) during the past several months. .. Read full article.

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