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Jun 30 2014

2nd Quarter 2014 Commentary - ASTON/River Road Select Value Fund

2nd Quarter 2014

Stocks traded higher during the second quarter as investors became increasingly confident about a second half rebound in economic growth. Delivering a sixth consecutive quarterly gain (a feat only achieved seven times in history), the broad-market S&P 500 Index rose 5.2% for the period in closing at an all-time high. The index also exhibited its lowest volatility since 2007, helping to extend the time without at least a -10% correction to a staggering 683 trading days—more than twice the 331 day average for the typical secular bull market.

Small-cap stocks lagged large-caps for the third consecutive quarter, with the Russell 2000 Index returning a mere 2.0% versus 5.1% for the large-cap oriented Russell 1000 Index. Small-caps also displayed significantly greater volatility than the broader market, dropping -9.3% from March 4 to May 15 before bouncing back sharply. Still, it was the eighth consecutive quarterly gain for the Russell 2000, marking its longest winning streak since 1995-1996. 

Buy-Back Bust
Beta (volatility) continued to be a neutral factor within the small/mid-cap universe. Quality also continued to outperform, with the stocks with the highest return-on-equity besting the lowest, on average. Notable, however, was that according to a study by Bank of America / Merrill Lynch, companies actively repurchasing shares were among the worst performing stocks within both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 during the first half of 2014. Share repurchases have been enormously popular with both companies and investors over the past few years as a way for companies to boost earnings per share in a low growth environment. With valuations rising, investors seem increasingly concerned with the price companies are paying to buy back shares, and are more interested in firms that can actually grow their core business or return the cash to shareholders through dividends. Indeed, dividend yield was one of the best performing factors among small-caps.

Another interesting observation came via a recent study from Jim Furey Research, a specialist in smaller-cap stocks. The study showed that loss-making companies have outperformed profitable companies by more than six percentage points since 2009, after having lagged by a similar amount the previous four decades. Since the most recent rally began, profitable companies have outperformed loss makers in just one out of every three quarters, when historically that number has been closer to 60%.  As the study indicated, this trend has been unfavorable to active small-cap managers, especially those focused on higher quality companies. 

From a sector perspective, all 10 economic sectors in the Fund’s Russell 2500 Value Index benchmark posted positive returns for the quarter. Sectors with the highest total return included Energy and Utilities, while Technology and Materials were the worst performing areas. 

Weakness in Materials and Industrials
The Fund posted a modest gain during the quarter, but lagged its benchmark. Poor stock performance, primarily within the Materials and Industrials sectors, was the primary driver of the underperformance. Although disappointed with this quarter’s results, we firmly believe the security-specific underperformance owed largely to temporary headwinds. 

The biggest detractor to performance was American Vanguard, a Materials company that develops, manufactures, and sells branded crop protection chemicals (insecticides and pesticides). The company reported weak first quarter results due to higher than usual inventory levels from persistent wet weather at the end of the 2013 planting season and severe winter weather that delayed the start of the 2014 season. Although the entire agricultural chemical industry is facing these temporary headwinds, the impact felt at American Vanguard was more acute given its product portfolio’s higher concentration to corn (and lack of offsetting soybean exposure). We think 2014 will be a transition year for the company and that 2015 will likely produce more normal results. Within Industrials, parking lot management company SP Plus reported weaker than expected first quarter results due to the severe winter weather. We took advantage of the temporary weakness to add to the position.

Another poor performer was Outerwall, manufacturer and operator of automated retail kiosks for home video rental (Redbox) and coin-counting (Coinstar). In early June, management reiterated its 2014 guidance, but warned that the second quarter would be negatively affected by weak DVD product, with the number of titles down 40%. Redbox continued to gain market share, offsetting overall market contraction. Furthermore, Redbox and Coinstar are cash cows, and management has pledged to return 75% to 100% of free cash flow to shareholders. We also believe ecoATM (an automated kiosk that pays cash for used mobile devices) represents a compelling growth story that the market is ignoring. We maintained the position during the quarter. 

Rebound in ADT
The sector with the highest contribution to relative return during the quarter was Financials, which benefitted from both an underweight allocation relative to the benchmark and strong stock selection. The latter came in the form of a number of REIT (real estate investment trust) holdings, highlighted by CareTrust REIT. CareTrust spun off from portfolio holding Ensign Group during the period, and owns the real estate of 94 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities operated by Ensign. We quickly eliminated the position post-spin at a premium to our assessed Absolute Value. The Fund continued to hold Ensign.

The top individual performer was security firm ADT. The company reported solid quarterly results that allayed investor fears that new competition from cable and telecom companies was eroding its business. Along with the solid operating results, the firm continued to repurchase shares and announced the acquisition of Canadian company Protectron to strengthen its business north of the border. ADT’s results reaffirmed our conviction in our investment thesis and we added to the position during the quarter.

Another top performer was WPX Energy, one of the 10 largest natural gas producers in the United States. Its shares moved sharply higher as a cool start to spring triggered higher natural gas prices and left natural gas inventory levels at 11-year lows. The positive momentum continued after the company reported quarterly results well ahead of guidance and announced the sale of mature wells in the Piceance Basin. The transaction will help fund the company’s exploration and development spending for 2014. WPX also hired Rick Muncrief as its CEO.  Muncrief most recently served as an operations executive at Continental Resources, a prolific oil producer with an excellent record of resource development. We trimmed the portfolio’s position as the discount to our calculate Absolute Value narrowed. 

Portfolio Positioning
We purchased six new holdings for the portfolio and sold 10 during the quarter. The new positions ranged from less than $300 million in market-cap to $6.0 billion, and spanned a diverse group of industries including, specialty retail (Francesca’s Holdings), specialty electronics (Knowles), and wireless telecommunications (NTELOS Holdings). Nine of the 10 companies sold achieved our Absolute Value price targets, while only AuRico Gold was sold due to accumulated losses or a negative fundamental change in our outlook for the company.

We strategically increased the position size of 24 current holdings. The two largest increases were in security firm Brink’s and prepaid payment network Blackhawk Network Holdings, the latter a top performing holding during the quarter as Safeway completed the spinoff of its stake in the firm, making it more attractive to institutional buyers. We reduced the stakes in nine positions as we struggled to put the cash generated by full sales to work.

The annual rebalancing of the Russell indices occurred on June 30, and was relatively uneventful. The Fund’s benchmark experienced only minor changes, with Industrials seeing the largest increase (1.1%) and Financials the largest decrease (-1.9%). The latter was due mostly to an increase among specialty retailers and latter to the removal of Business Development Companies (BDCs) by Russell from its indices. The largest holding in the index declined from $12.3 billion in market-capitalization to $9.9 billion. Within the portfolio, noteworthy changes in sector positioning during the quarter included modest increases to Technology and Industrials, and decreases in Healthcare and Materials.

The largest new position added during the quarter was PetSmart. The pet retailing industry has grown at a 6% rate the past two decades, and even grew during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The humanization of pets illustrates the resiliency of the business and the opportunity for long-term growth. Nearly 70% of American households own a pet and the same percentage admits it would spend more money to ensure the wellness of a pet. We think the company’s broad suite of premium products and services (e.g. PETM is one of the few places that allows customers to bring in their pets) help differentiate the consumer’s shopping experience, drive overall traffic, and attract a relatively affluent customer base.

The company reported a weak first quarter and investors seemed to fear the cause was the growing e-commerce threat to pet food sales. We believe this risk is overblown. Although e-commerce is a risk, it only represents roughly 4% of total industry sales. Online retailers do not have the buying power of PetSmart and must offer free shipping to compete. It is difficult to profitably sell and distribute 20 to 50 pound bags of pet food door-to-door given their low value-to-weight ratios. Firm management has a strong record as operators and is extremely shareholder focused, having opportunistically repurchased shares and maintained a conservative balance sheet while consistently growing the store base, and initiated a dividend in 2009 that has grown at a significant annual rate. The stock traded a 26% discount to our assessed Absolute Value at the time of initial purchase. 

Market returns and reported earnings are in line with our initial expectations for 2014, leaving our outlook for the remainder of the year largely unchanged. As noted in January, while it is philosophically difficult for us to anticipate positive returns in light of unattractive valuations and weak growth, monetary policy combined with our recent experience supports a modest return expectation for the year.

Conviction in our outlook remains low, however, with risk weighted overwhelmingly to the downside. Pockets of inflation are beginning to emerge (Core CPI is up sharply over the past few months, wages are rising, capacity utilization is up) which if combined with even a modest increase in growth could accelerate expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. We think this heightened inflation awareness is already beginning to weigh on small-cap returns. Housing trends have also weakened (which we did not anticipate) and, with nearly 20% of small-cap earnings tied to the housing sector, it will almost certainly weigh on returns if the trend persists.

Of course, as fundamental, value-oriented investors, our biggest concern remains valuations. Our proprietary portfolio valuation metric, the weighted discount-to-Absolute Value for the portfolio’s top-20 holdings, has actually improved in recent months, declining from 85% at the start of the year to 80% on June 30. Although we still consider this figure “expensive”, it has declined to the lower boundary of that designation. That decline, however, came at a cost as the weighted conviction in those top 20 positions also modestly declined. This balance of risk and reward, along with the portfolio’s current concentration level and elevated cash balance, reflects our highly disciplined response to the scarcity of traditional, high-quality value stocks in the current equity environment. 

As discussed in the past, the challenge with valuation analysis in this environment is one of absolute versus relative. We think stocks are expensive on an absolute basis, but what is the appropriate discount on a stock when the risk-free rate is essentially zero? Perhaps an 85% discount is more comparable to 75% or 80% in a normal rate environment. We admittedly do not have all these answers, but our investment discipline and valuation models are firmly anchored to our Absolute Value approach that has stood the test of time over many market cycles. We further believe that those investors who choose to ignore market history are doomed to repeat it—and history through the lens of current small-cap valuations continues to say “look out below.”

The portfolio’s relative fundamental metrics continue to look attractive to us. From a growth perspective, the long-term earnings growth forecast for the portfolio’s holdings in aggregate is greater than the benchmark. The portfolio also continues to exhibit far less volatility than the market and many of its peers, which we think should benefit the Fund once monetary policy begins to normalize and stocks revert to more sustainable valuations.

River Road Asset Management

As of June 30, 2014, American Vanguard comprised 1.27% of the portfolio’s assets, SP Plus – 1.08%, Outerwall – 1.71%, CareTrust REIT – 0.00%, Ensign Group – 1.06%, ADT – 3.19%, WPX Energy – 0.86%, Francesca’s Holdings – 0.78%, Knowles – 0.79%, NTELOS Holdings – 0.48%, Brink’s – 2.33%, Blackhawk Network Holding – 2.53%, and PetSmart – 1.78%.

Note: Small-cap stocks are considered riskier than large-cap stocks due to greater potential volatility and less liquidity. Value investing often involves buying the stocks of companies that are currently out of favor that may decline further.

Before investing, consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact 800 992-8151 for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this and other information. Please, read it carefully. Aston Funds are distributed by Foreside Funds Distributors LLC.

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